Climate Displacement and Migration

Climate displacement is on the rise. In 2022, more than three million Americans were forced to relocate due to extreme weather and natural disasters, and in 2023, nearly 26 million people across the globe were displaced due to natural disasters. As climate change continues to worsen, these numbers are expected to grow. By 2050, more than one billion people may be displaced due to climate-related impacts.

Though the number of climate abandonment areas — places where climate change pushes people out — is growing, displaced residents may stay in the area or move back later. Areas that are currently experiencing some of the worst effects of climate change are the ones seeing the greatest influx of new residents; cities in the Northeast and Midwest are seeing population losses, while states in the South and West continue to gain residents. And while interest in climate havens — areas, largely in the Midwest and Northeast, that are predicted to avoid the harshest effects of climate change — is growing, even these places aren't wholly safe from climate change. Every state in the country has experienced at least one billion-dollar disaster in the past five years.

Renewed discussions about managed retreat, explained in PAS QuickNotes 106, characterize it as a package of potential actions rather than the wholesale abandonment of at-risk areas. Yet, continued development in hazardous areas is still the norm. In North Carolina, for every buyout, 10 new homes have been built in floodplains. A similar dynamic is occurring in wildfire-prone areas as new homes are increasingly being built on the site of previous forest and grassland fires. This dynamic may be starting to shift, however, given recent actions by insurers to cancel homeownership policy coverage in high-risk areas.

This conflict between meeting the need for new development while ensuring that this development is safe from worsening climate impacts is likely to be a major challenge for planners in the coming years, and adaptation will be critical to proactively retreat from especially high-risk areas and prepare for the movement of people due to climate-related impacts. Explore the March 2024 APA blog post "Planners Can Integrate Climate Migrants" to learn more about what planners can do to prepare their communities for the arrival of those displaced by climate change.