Full Speed Ahead?

By Kristen Pope

In Fresno, California, workers in hard hats and high-vis vests are diligently working to maneuver earthmoving equipment, operate cranes, and wield shovels, as drivers follow detours and avoid barricades on their way through town. The construction, which broke ground in 2015, is all part of California's high-speed rail project. Fresno is a station community and one of the Central Valley communities on the front lines of this long-awaited, and controversial, project.

On March 9, the California High-Speed Rail Authority released its Draft 2018 Business Plan. According to authority spokesperson Annie Parker, after a public hearing and a public comment period, the board is scheduled to adopt the business plan before submitting it to the California legislature, which it is required by law to do every two years.

The new document contains a few unwelcome surprises for high-speed rail devotees. For one, the projected cost has risen more than $13 billion from estimates just two years ago to $77.3 billion, although high-range estimates say it could reach $98.1 billion. High-speed rail funding is a combination of federal and state funding, including funding from a bond initiative approved by voters in 2008 and cap-and-trade funds. Private investment is a possibility if the project proves to be profitable.

The time line has also been pushed back by four years, as reported by the Los Angeles Times, with the San Francisco to Bakersfield section potentially running in 2029 and the full system by 2033.

The reasons for the increased prices and schedule delays are numerous. One major cause is the soaring costs of environmental reviews. In 2010, federal National Environmental Policy Act and California Environmental Quality Act reviews were expected to cost $388 million; the estimate is now stands at more than $1 billion. It also involves a lengthy process that could take up to 10 years for full clearance, says Parker. In addition, in-depth geotechnical analysis is required in such a shaky state. Acquiring property is also a time- and cost-intensive process.

Another reason for these budget and timing shifts is based on lessons the authority has learned from the first section of the project, the 119-mile Central Valley section, currently in progress. This portion of the project is estimated to cost $10.6 billion, much higher than the original $6 billion projection.

The Draft 2018 Business Plan cites land acquisition costs, unanticipated freight railroad related costs, third-party requirements from local government and irrigation districts, and the incorrect assumption that local electric and gas provider PG&E and AT&T would cover utility relocation costs as reasons for the cost increases.

"This draft plan emphasizes that our sole focus is delivering a functional, certified, and commercially viable high-speed rail system under a stringent oversight of stewardship," Annie Parker wrote in an email response to our questions. "That means we must incorporate lessons learned during construction in the Central Valley and revise accordingly."

As the California High-Speed Rail Authority works to overcome funding and timing issues, where does this leave communities along the highspeed railway's route?

California High-Speed Rail: The proposed statewide rail system alignment, updated this year. Map courtesy hsr.ca.gov.

Breaking ground

A dozen "station communities" have been identified throughout the state. Fresno is the first under construction. One of the big projects in Fresno is the construction of a 4,700-foot viaduct crossing over existing Union Pacific Railroad tracks and the San Joaquin River (because high-speed rail must have an exclusive path with no crossings of any sort).

Ralph Kachadourian, supervising planner for Fresno and the High-Speed Rail Impacted Business Assistance Program project manager, works as an intermediary between high-speed rail and local businesses affected by property acquisition.

He helps businesses sort out issues associated with the high-speed rail project, including property acquisition and direct and indirect impacts associated with rail and station construction, as well as moving roads, utilities, water lines, sewer lines, and other infrastructure.

State Route 99 next to Union Pacific Railroad tracks is a great example. It is an ideal location for high-speed rail, but to make the spot work, the main thoroughfare must be shifted west around 100 feet for 2.3 miles. That includes three lanes of traffic and some major overcrossings, which must then be rebuilt. Businesses along that 2.3-mile stretch are impacted, but everyone is working to ensure customers can still access these businesses during this time.

Kachadourian says around 255 businesses will be impacted in Fresno. Around 20 of those are considered critical businesses that employ a significant number of residents. The city wants to do everything possible to keep these businesses (and the associated tax revenue and jobs) in town.

The high-speed rail project itself also creates stakejobs. An estimated 1,200 Central Valley residents are employed in its construction.

As soon as the route was confirmed and they identified those critical businesses, the city worked to help however they could, including expediting the review process and using local real estate professionals to find new locations.

Kachadourian says that once construction is complete, the Bay Area will only be a 50-minute ride away on high-speed rail. He says people will be able to purchase affordable homes in Fresno and commute to the Bay Area, which could have both benefits and drawbacks for current Fresno residents.

"A lot of people have communicated or expressed 'what's that going to mean if we all of a sudden start getting Bay Area transplants to live here?' Of course, the price of housing will go up and Fresno may not be as affordable," Kachadourian says. At the same time, he notes, being close to a major metropolitan area with good employment opportunities and high wages could benefit the community as a whole, although he says the true impact might depend on how affordable tickets end up being.

A viaduct for the California High-Speed Rail project, under construction in Fresno last year. Photo by Jim Wilson/The New York Times.

Up the tracks

Located just north of Fresno County, Madera County is also being impacted by high-speed rail construction. Unlike Fresno, this community is not a station city. Madera County is located in a high-impact Y-alignment area where two branches of the high-speed rail line, from San Francisco and Sacramento, will meet.

Since construction began, the county has been facing traffic congestion and is working with the contractor and high-speed rail officials to find temporary solutions such as detours, and to resolve issues regarding property acquisitions.

"We have a number of instances where acquisition by high-speed rail has been difficult, and the county's been working with not only property owners in those instances, but we're trying to work with high-speed rail to make sure we're keeping those residents and property owners and making them whole through this acquisition process," say Matt

Treber, community and economic development director for Madera County. Treber is also working to ensure properties acquired for the project are not left to fall into disrepair. This often means helping the rail authority secure and maintain the properties or demolishing structures quickly so they don't lead to neighborhood blight.

Although it is not a station community, Madera County is vying for an important economic opportunity: the high-speed rail heavy maintenance facility. "It would be a significant boon to our economy and our job growth that we're looking for, and as a part of that obviously we see the benefit and potential spin-off of significant commercial and industrial development around that and additional housing to provide for those workers," Treber says.

Overall, Treber sees benefits to the county. "I think ultimately if it's built and constructed that we stand to see significant growth economically here in the valley," he says.

An aerial shot taken in March shows the construction of the San Joaquin River Viaduct. It will feature a pergola structure to allow highspeed trains to cross over the top of the Union Pacific tracks. Photo courtesy hsr.ca.gov.

In limbo

Approximately 100 miles south of Fresno, construction has yet to begin in Bakersfield. This station city is still waiting for final confirmation about where the tracks will be laid and where the station will be built. In the meantime, the city is developing a High-Speed Rail Station Area Plan for its downtown area. The document will be used as a vision plan to guide the development of the area around the station and downtown Bakersfield in anticipation of the changes that will come with it.

The community has been holding meetings and workshops to gather community input since March 2016. A public comment period for the Draft Vision Plan and Draft Environmental Impact Report closed in February. Bakersfield also holds monthly stake holder meetings that include businesses, elected officials, mass transit providers, and a voluntary group of community members representing a broad range of local interests to provide input into the high-speed rail station area planning process. However, a lack of final decision about the exact locations of the tracks and station has put other important projects on hold.

"Some essential community things are being impacted," says Cecelia Griego, Bakersfield's principal planner. She notes that the local transit system, which includes a citywide bus service, has upgrades planned, including a whole new maintenance facility — but one of the proposed alignments goes right through the facility site, so they are waiting on confirmation to build it. This leaves the area without adequate maintenance facilities to service their vehicles. The same proposed alignment would affect the city's homeless center.

"It's hard for people to plan for their needs when they don't know when things will happen," Griego says.

In the meantime, Bakersfield is conducting economic and market analysis about housing, office, retail, and hotel space needs in light of high-speed rail. The city is also working to enhance its downtown area to make it more walkable and bikeable, as well as to identify underutilized parcels, increase downtown density, and revitalize the old downtown shopping core while preserving its historic character. They are also planning to look into a shared parking ordinance as a way of freeing up space for nonparking purposes and potentially increasing density downtown.

They are also looking at projects to make the city more attractive to visitors. "Most people don't see Bakersfield as a destination," Griego says. "Most riders will be going from San Francisco to Los Angeles or Sacramento to Los Angeles, those bigger urban centers, but we want to say we've got a great place. What can we do to showcase us locally and make it an inviting place?" The city wants to focus on station integration with transit systems, ride shares, and walking so people can easily explore. "We're hoping we can become more of a tourism spot, too," Griego says. "We do have some great history and culture here."

Until more things are finalized, Bakersfield is in a holding pattern, facing a lot of unknowns. "A lot of people still don't believe it will happen," Griego says. "The cost, some of the delays — like not having this alignment picked — has been a frustration because people are concerned: 'Is my property going to be impacted?' 'Am I going to lose my house, lose my business?' We get a lot of questions and, until that alignment is picked, we can't give them a straightforward answer."

"[The rail system] will have an impact," Griego says. "It is going to take out some businesses and there are definite concerns. But at the same time, I think people are excited about the possibilities. It's almost like we call it cautious optimism."

Bakersfield Plan Map

The California High-Speed Rail Authority's proposed Bakersfield station locations are being studied to determine optimal connectivity between the stations, Golden Empire Transit buses, Kern County regional transportation, Greyhound, and taxi services.

Map courtesy California High-Speed Rail Authority.

Kristen Pope is a freelance writer and editor and a frequent contributor to Planning.

Resources

California High-Speed Rail Authority's Draft 2018 Business Plan: http://bit.ly/2pzaRnz.

The draft's Technical Supporting Document — Capital Cost Basis of Estimate Report: http://bit.ly/2IHvBC2.

Making Downtown Bakersfield: makingdowntownbakersfield.us.

Fresno's station area planning: fresnostationdistrict.org.

HSR Interactive Maps: Get a closer look at each section of the project, including time lines and updates. http://bit.ly/2qcG6Fg